Pound hits highest level since Brexit vote, with Bank of England expected to raise interest rates today – business live

Newsflash: The pound has hit its highest level since its crash after the Brexit referendum a decade ago. Data released by the Bank of England shows that the pound reached its strongest level against a basket of other currencies since 23 June 2016 – the day of the EU vote - yesterday. This follows the drop in the value of the US dollar after the Midterm elections, but also reflects the pound’s recent strength against other currencies such as the euro and the yen. The pound has also benefited from expectations that the BoE will raise interest rates at noon today, which makes it more lucrative for investors to hold funds in sterling. The dollar weakened generally yesterday, amid a risk-on rally that saw money flow into other currencies. Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank explains: When it came to the market reaction, there was relief among investors that the results weren’t disputed, which helped to reduce political uncertainty. Moreover, the prospect of divided government also eased concerns about the fiscal trajectory, given it’ll now be more difficult to pass tax cuts or spending packages. Today’s 10-year high relates to the sterling “effective exchange rate index” (EERI), which tracks the pound against a basket of other currencies. Calculated by the Bank of England, this index has now hit 86.5372. On the index, 100 equals the value of the pound in January 2005. Back in 2016, the pound hit a 31-year low against the dollar. That pulled EERI down to 84.441 on 24 June 2026, down from 87.9248 on the day of the referendum. EERI fell as low as 73.1 on March 23, 2020, in the Covid pandemic. Ouch! Activity in the UK’s construction sector fell sharply last month, new data shows. The latest Constrution PMI report, just relased, shows there was a “sharp and accelerated reduction in business activity during October”. Housebuilding work slumped in the month, the report says: Residential activity (index at 35.1) was by far the weakest performing segment, with the latest reading the lowest since December 2025 and indicative of a steep drop in house building. Anecdotal evidence cited low consumer confidence, elevated risk aversion and headwinds from rising borrowing costs. The overall Construction PMI, produced by S&P Global, has dropped to 43.6, down from 46.1 in September. That’s the lowest reading since June, and further below the 50-point mark showing stagnation. One question pondered by investors and economists is how high UK interest rates might go. Professor Costas Milas, of the Management School at the University of Liverpool, has published new forecasts for Bank Rate, in a blog post for the LSE Business Review. He reports: A Bank Rate of 4% (almost certainly today) is just outside the upper bound of neutral rates; so, policy is “borderline” restrictive. That said, I am critical of the whole concept of neutral rates and agree with [Fed chair] Kevin Warsh*. The models I use suggest that Bank Rate will peak at 4.25% in mid 2027. We could see Bank Rate close to 4.6% in mid-2027 if, and only if, the BoE thought (unlikely at the moment) that inflation would stay as high as 4.2% up until 2028Q1. [* – Warsh recently said the neutral rate is “useful academically” but has no “operational effect” on policy decisions] Norway’s central bank has left interest rates on hold, but warned it could raise borrowing costs in the months ahead. Norges Bank voted to maintain its policy rate at 4.5%, despite inflation continuing to run over its target. Governor Ida Wolden Bache says: “Inflation is too high. It will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time, and we are prepared to raise the policy rate if needed to bring inflation down to target within a reasonable time horizon.” While financial markets are welcoming the US midterm results, there are still some key risks, cautions Ajith Nair, chief investment officer of Isio Investment Management. Nair explains that the reduced political uncertainty is helpful for markets – but that doesn’t mean that all the major risks have disappeared": “The immediate reaction has clearly been positive and provides some welcome respite after the recent wobble in AI-related stocks. Markets appear to be taking comfort from the idea that the election result means the Trump administration will face greater constraints in pursuing some of the more disruptive parts of its policy agenda over the final two years of the presidency. “That may ultimately prove correct, but investors should be careful about getting too comfortable with that assumption. A more challenging Congress does not mean the President is powerless, particularly when it comes to trade and foreign policy. If markets are effectively betting on two relatively uneventful years from Washington, that assumption could still be tested.” UK government bond prices are also rallying today. This has pushed down the yield, or rate of return, on UK 10-year gilts by 4 basis points (0.04 of a percentage point) to the lowest since August 28, below 5.1%. Thirty-year gilt yields have fallen too, to their lowest since July 7. More succour for the Bank of England, and hard-pressed households! Gas prices are dropping this morning, with the month-ahead UK gas price down 2% at 214.2p a therm. That’s the fourth daily fall in a row, after prices hit their highest level in almost four years last week. However, this still leaves wholesale gas prices more than double their level before the Iran war began. Europe’s oil & gas stocks are down 2% this morning, at a one-month low. That follows yesterday’s slump in the oil price, which accelerated after US vice-president JD Vance blamed the Iran war for the Republican’s dire Midterms performance. Boom! The London stock market has hit a three-month high at the start of trading. The blue-chip FTSE 100 share index has jumped by 119 points, to 10,948 points, as global stock markets continue to welcomed the strong win by the US Democrats in the Midterm elections. That’s on top of Wednesday’s 190 point leap, and puts the Footsie close to the record high hit at the end of July. It means the index has gained around 10% this year, having hit 10,000 points for the first time back in January. European stock markets are also higher this morning, with France’s CAC 40 jumping by over 1%. There’s quite a lot of corporate news for the markets to digest this morning. Next have beaten City expectations by reporting an 8.1% rise in full-price sales in the third-quarter of the year. The retailer said that “all of the sales over-performance came from our international business,” with the UK growing rather slower. Rival retailer ASOS cheered investors by saying trading in recent weeks had been encouraging. It forecast annual adjusted core profit above market expectations, despite a recent cyber attack. In the housebuilding sector, Vistry said this morning it has begun reducing headcount, ancd cautioned that housing demand remains subdued. Today’s decision is an opportunity for the Bank of England to push back against market expectations for several rate rises in 2027. Currently, the money markets are pricing in up to three rate rises next year, on top of one at noon today. Many economists think this is unlikely, though. A second rate hike in February, to 4.25%, is generally anticipated, though, as James Smith of ING explains: Another rate hike in February seems to be the growing consensus – and our own view too. There’s little precedent for ‘one-and-done’ rate rises. But it’s one thing thinking that, another saying it out loud. There’s a lot that can happen between now and February. And having made a hawkish misstep all the way back in March, when the Bank sounded open-minded about tighter policy, opening the floodgates for markets to price in rate hikes, it’ll want to tread carefully here. Deutsche Bank analysts predict the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee will split 6-3 in today’s vote, with a majority voting for a rate hike to 4%. [The committee is split between hawks (who want higher rates to fight inflation), and doves (who fear higher rates will hurt economic growth).] Deutsche Bank also predict the Bank’s latest economic forecasts will show inflation rising as high as 4.25% by the first quarter of 2027, along with an upgrade to the 2026 growth forecast to 1.4%. They told clients: We expect the Bank of England’s patience to have run out with the unfolding energy shock. Stronger growth has led to a stabilising labour market. Excess capacity may be less than previously thought. Looking at the latest money market pricing, a UK interest rate rise today is seen as a 98% chance. The Bank of England will be reassured to see that the oil price has tumbled this week. Brent crude fell through the $100 a barrel mark yesterday, hitting its lowest level in two months, and this morning is trading around $95 a barrel. Traders appear to be concluding that Donald Trump might try to deescalate the Middle East conflict after his Republican party was hammered in this week’s midterms. Nothing is certain, though, as Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, explains: Peace talks are in rhetoric alone currently. Meanwhile, it’s feared an increasingly lame-duck President Trump could become more active (and arguably reckless) in foreign policy as he seeks to influence policy at a time when there are fewer self-interested reasons to show restraint. For now, market participants are pricing out the geopolitical risk premium that had been baked into the market leading into the midterms on fears the US would launch fresh strikes after the election. Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy. Predicting a central bank’s actions can be risky, but there will certainly be surprise in the City of London today if the Bank of England doesn’t raise interest rates at midday. The BoE is widely expected to announce its first increase in UK interest rate in more than three years, at noon today. A quarter-point rise would take Bank Rate up to 4% from 3.75%. With inflation rising faster than the Bank’s target, most of its policymakers are expected to decide now is the moment to tighten monetary policy. This, they might hope, would dampen the risk that high energy costs spill over and push up the cost of other goods and services. The Bank hasn’t hiked borrowing costs since August 2023, when bank rate hit 5.25%. It will also be playing ‘catch-up’ with other central banks – rates have already risen in the US, Japan, the eurozone, Australia and Canada this year. Peder Beck-Friis, economist at bond trader PIMCO, says a hike to 4% is “fully priced by markets,” explaining: The BoE is primarily responding to higher energy prices, but macro data have also turned more hawkish. Growth has been resilient, the labour market has stabilized, and core inflation has edged higher. However, the economy does not look overheated, and pass-through from higher energy prices into core inflation has been modest overall. Andrew Wishard, senior UK economist at Berenberg, predicts the decision will be almost unanimous: We expect an 8-1 vote in favour of the move, with only Alan Taylor dissenting. Although several rate setters will vote for the hike reluctantly, developments in the real economy justify it. Strong economic growth and a tentative stabilisation of the labour market suggest that an interest rate hike will restrain economic activity only modestly. The agenda 9am GMT: UK car sales report for October 9.30am GMT: UK construction PMI for October Noon GMT: Bank of England interest rate decision 12.30pm GMT: Bank of England press conference 1.30pm: US jobless claims report