Centre-left bloc leads Swedish elections – as it happened

Swedish opposition left-leaning parties held a lead of just a single seat on Monday morning, with 91% votes counted (1:43), as the result remained too close to call the election (1:04). Opposition leader Magdalena Andersson said Sweden would get a new government if the projected result gets confirmed when all votes are counted, as projections suggest a one-mandate win for the left-leaning opposition bloc over Ulf Kristersson’s centre-right bloc (00:04, 00:11). But Kristersson urged patience until all votes are counted and suggested exploring an alternative majority, while casting doubt over the ability of the opposition parties to agree on a common programme (00:42). Projections by the Swedish election authority and Swedens’s public broadcaster SVT suggest the opposition bloc will have 175 seats in the new parliament, one more than the governing centre-right bloc at 174 (21:48, 23:25). Key party leaders conceded that the margin between the two parties is too small to determine the result of the election tonight, with all ballots not expected to be counted before Wednesday (23:47, 23:53, 00:04, 00:18, 00:28). The far-right anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats appeared to lose support comparing to 2022, with Kristersson’s Moderates expected to take over as the second largest party in the country (20:15, 22:05, 22:11, 00:28). Given the results so far, the government formation process could take weeks if not months. Thank you for joining me on Europe Live tonight. If you have any comments, suggestions, or tips, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com. I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa. At 1:40am local time (0:40am UK), here are the latest results, with 6,048 polling districts counted (91%). Social Democratic Party (S) 28% Moderates (M) 19.9% Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.6% Left Party (V) 8.2% Centre Party (C) 7.1% Christian Democrats (KD) 6.2% Green Party (MP) 6.1% Liberals (L) 5.4% With 89% of votes counted, the latest SVT projection confirms the opposition bloc is on course to win by a single seat in the new parliament. They put the probability of that scenario at about 90%, but stress it can’t be confirmed until all votes are counted. That’s purely looking at the sum of all mandates won by the opposition parties. Whether they can actually agree on a manifesto and form a government despite their differences – which is what PM Kristersson alluded to in his speech (00:42) - is a separate issue. Here is a summary of where we are at 1am local time (midnight UK). Swedish opposition leader Magdalena Andersson said Sweden would get a new government if the projected result gets confirmed when all votes are counted, as projections suggest a one-mandate win for the left-leaning opposition bloc over Ulf Kristersson’s centre-right bloc (00:04, 00:11). But Kristersson urged patience until all votes are counted and suggested exploring an alternative majority, while casting doubt over the ability of the opposition parties to agree on a common programme (00:42). Projections by the Swedish election authority and Swedens’s public broadcaster SVT suggest the opposition bloc will have 175 seats in the new parliament, one more than the governing centre-right bloc at 174 (21:48, 23:25). Key party leaders conceded that the margin between the two parties is too small to determine the result of the election tonight, with all ballots not expected to be counted before Wednesday (23:47, 23:53, 00:04, 00:18, 00:28). The far-right anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats appeared to lose support comparing to 2022, with Kristersson’s Moderates expected to take over as the second largest party in the country (20:15, 22:05, 22:11, 00:28). Given the results so far, the government formation process could take weeks if not months. Kristersson says “the election result is not in yet,” as he says it’s an “exciting” race. But he focuses on the fact the three left-wing parties – he excludes in that the Centre party from the opposition bloc – have failed to secure a majority, which he says demonstrates that the country “rejects a shift to the left.” He says his party will “either have a narrow majority … or will be one seat short,” but in both cases, he says, “there is a majority that wants a different economic policy to the one the Social Democrats campaigned for.” He says that if the opposition secures 175 seats, he will respect Andersson’s plan to explore a majority with the other three opposition parties, but casts doubt at their ability to work together. He points out that the Centre party previously ruled out governing with the Left, while the Left insisted it wouldn’t support any government it isn’t part of. Could this be a last-minute attempt to push the Centre party to switch sides? He points out that there are “many irreconcilable positions” on the left, which make this result much more complicated than just a sum of seats for the opposition parties. He says he is also ready to search an alternative majority in the new parliament, excluding the Social Democrats, “to find a workable constellation that can secure support for the economic policy the Swedish voters have voted for.” He also says he is “incredibly proud” of his party’s achievements and thanks all involved in the campaign. He says it’s still “an open question” who will lead the next government. The (outgoing/re-elected, take your pick) prime minister Ulf Kristersson is speaking now. Let’s see what he is going to say. The far-right Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson is speaking next. He acknowledges his party has lost a few percentage points compared to 2022, as it most likely loses the status of the second largest party in the country. But he says how happy he is to see more people “no longer feel uncomfortable” saying they support his party, but “they do so with pride.” He says the governing bloc “still has a chance to win this,” despite weeks of media commentary “writing us off.” “We don’t know the exact number, but we are talking about tens of thousands of votes, not hundreds of thousands; a fraction of a percentage point,” he says. He accepts “we will not find out tonight” who will form the next government. The Left Party’s leader Nooshi Dadgostar is up next. She points out her party has gained most compared to the 2022 election, with the latest projection giving it 8.1%, up from 6.75% in 2022. As other leaders, she acknowledges “the result is still unclear; we have to wait a little longer,” and it will be a “nervous” wait. But says it’s clear her party has done all it could to oust the current government. “If this [result] stands, Sweden will have a new government” from Magdalena Andersson (00:04) may be the closest we will get to a conclusive result tonight. With 84% of votes now counted, her left-leaning coalition continues to lead by a single mandate in the new parliament. Chatting to journalists after her speech, Andersson stresses the need to “keep a cool head” until all the results are in. But repeatedly pushed on this point by journalists, she says she believes it is possible to form and run a government with a one-seat majority. She also repeats her call for “a new spirit of cooperation,” including on things like energy policies. Andersson begins with praising the beauty of democracy, and everyone having an equal vote, “one of the finest things humanity has ever come up with.” She also thanks everyone in the party who helped during the campaign, particularly away from TV cameras. “You have achieved something historic,” she says. She says the party’s future is “bright.” She says “we await the final result,” and “every single vote cast must be counted.” “But my message is clear: we, Social Democrats, will always stand ready to take responsibility for the outcome.” She says the extremely close result of the vote points to the need for “a new spirit of cooperation” in Swedish politics. But eventually she does make a passing comment on the current provisional results: “Right now, we are in the lead, and if this holds, Sweden will have a new government. But we must wait for the final result,” she says. Oh, the Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson is up next. Let’s see what she says. (Maybe she is really reading the blog?) The Christian Democrats leader (and deputy prime minister) Ebba Busch is the next leader to speak. She comes to stage with a prop – a red ace of hearts – claiming the government parties are now making gains. She says the election may prove to be “a real nailbiter,” with the final result uncertain until Wednesday. “Every single vote must be counted,” she says, as she concedes Swedes may go to bed tonight uncertain about who will form the future government. The Liberal party’s leader Simona Mohamsson is unsurprisingly delighted with the projected numbers given her party polled below the threshold not long ago (20:20). She calls the result “a historic comeback,” and says it shows the party’s hard work during the campaign paid off. She tells the party faithful to enjoy the moment, and says the outcome of the election is not decided yet. Interestingly, neither PM Ulf Kristersson nor his main challenger Magdalena Andersson has taken to the stage so far tonight. They are no doubt reading the blog waiting for the final results. Centre Party’s leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist is the next party leader to speak tonight and she celebrates “what a campaign we have had.” She says the party succeeded in making the campaign all about its policies, and “optimism and faith in the future.” If the current figures hold, her party will marginally improve its 2022 result with 7.1%, up from 6.7%. Here are the latest results in our brand new self-updating chart as more results come in. Reading from left to right, the first four parties are in the right-leaning governing bloc; the other four are in the left-leaning opposition bloc. The Swedish election authority has now put out its own projection, which provisionally confirms a one-seat difference between the blocs. They have the left-leaning opposition with 175 seats in the new parliament to the incumbents’ 174. Could not be closer. With 71% votes counted, the result remains the same: the left-leaning opposition bloc leads by… a single seat in the next parliament, 175 to 174. Green Party leaders Amanda Lind and Daniel Helldén are the first party leaders to take to the stage tonight. They welcome the result, and say they will fight “for the climate and the equality” in the next parliament. Playing on my fears (22:56), Lind also suggests we may not have the final result until Wednesday. Argh. Some late ballots, primarily from overseas voters, are only expected to be counted on Wednesday. And the number of late ballots could be higher than the current margin between the two parties. Just saying. Amazingly, if the projection came true, it would not be the first time Sweden has seen a nail-biter of this scale. In the 1973 general election, the two main political blocs literally tied at 175 seats each. That stalemate prompted parliament to change the number of available seats to an odd 349 ahead of the next election. That proved to be a smart move, coming in handy just six years later, in 1979, when the centre-right bloc won by, erm, a single seat: 175 to 174. They do love a bit of drama, Swedes, don’t they? Swedish public broadcaster SVT says their projection appears to show the difference between the two blocs is currently around 20,000 votes. Incredible. With 57% of votes now counted, the opposition bloc leads by 0.3pp, 46.2% to 45.9% – and still 175 to 174 when it comes to seats. The latest figures are as follows: Social Democratic Party (S) 27.6% Moderates (M) 19.8% Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.7% Left Party (V) 8.2% Centre Party (C) 7.2% Green Party (MP) 6.3% Christian Democrats (KD) 6.2.% Liberals (L) 5.4% The SVT projection shows 49.3% of the vote share going to the opposition bloc, with 49.2% for the governing bloc. A difference of 0.1pp. We are literally talking about the slimmest of margins here. Nicholas Aylott of the Södertörn University writes in to comment on the new projected result for Kristersson’s Moderates. “For the second consecutive election, the party of the PM looks set to have increased its vote, while allies lost out. Not what we usually expect.” The Moderates saw 19.1% of the vote share in 2022; the latest SVT projection has them at 20.0%. Obviously, the SVT’s projection will keep being revised as more votes get counted, so expect more changes and dramas tonight. This is not the final result, and things may – and no doubt will – change again. It’s worth noting the Moderates gaining a lot in the SVT’s projection, moving up from 18.1% to 20.0%, well ahead of the far-right Sweden Democrats in third, at 17.5%. I hate to be the “I told you so” guy, but… I told you so. Exit polls in Sweden have, erm, a history (19:58, 20:33). Get some snacks, we are in for a long night. Drama. The SVT’s much-awaited projection at 9.45pm local time, using the actual results from 10% of districts in their model, shows the two blocs effectively tied, with the opposition leading by just ONE SEAT in the new parliament. Here are the revised figures: Social Democratic Party (S) 27.6% Moderates (M) 20.0% Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.5% Left Party (V) 8.2% Centre Party (C) 7.1% Christian Democrats (KD) 6.3% Green Party (MP) 6.2% Liberals (L) 5.5% If confirmed, it would give a truly extraordinary result: the opposition bloc at 175 seats in the new parliament, and the incumbent government at 174. It’s going to be a long night. Ready for some drama? The SVT’s first projection is here, and… gosh. Oh, turns out they need a bit more time. Their numbers have slightly changed, but it’s based on very partial results, and they say they need a bit more to properly run their model. So the wait continues. The SVT superprojection is coming any moment now. Ready? Digging into SVT/Valu poll data, as many as 64% of the people who voted for the Liberal party only decided to do so in the last week. In sharp contrast, the equivalent number for the far-right Sweden Democrats stands at mere 18%. Overall, one in three voters only made their mind up this week, the poll says. Here’s the SVT/Valu exit poll in a visual form. The numbers show the projected vote share. Remember Nicholas Aylott’s argument from earlier – that a small section of the electorate caring deeply about the creeping normalisation of the Sweden Democrats could shift the balance if they switched sides (18:40)? Well, SVT’s Valu exit poll shows that 12% of voters who backed prime minister Ulf Kristersson in 2022 have opted for one of the four opposition parties this time around – with 6% choosing Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats. We will need more data, but it’s entirely plausible that discomfort over normalising the far right played some role in that swing. First actual results are now coming in, but it will take a while before they tell any meaningful story. I will keep an eye on this for you. That 9pm-ish SVT superforecast (20:33) can boast a great backstory. Essentially tl;dr, a group of geeks ran an algorithm four years ago which proved to be so superior than anything else that they were snapped by the public broadcaster to work for them this time round. Aftonbladet has the story in full. Their Valprognos should drop around 9.10pm local time (8.10pm UK) and give us a better idea of what the numbers could look like at the end of the night. So we have about 30 minutes to grab a cup of coffee. Nordic correspondent If the exit polls prove to be right, early indications suggest a very dramatic night ahead for Sweden. If correct, it would not only mean a major shift in power from right to left and a new prime minister in the form of Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson, but also a catastrophe for the far-right Sweden Democrats. The SVT early exit poll puts Jimmie Åkesson’s party in third place – currently the Sweden Democrats are the country’s second biggest party after the Social Democrats. If under these conditions Andersson were to form a left-leaning government, it would make the Moderates opposition leaders. But, but, but… “Sälj inte skinnet innan björnen är skjuten.” “Don’t sell the pelt before the bear is shot,” as Ulf Kristersson himself said in last night’s pre-election TV debate. I don’t want to be rude to anyone, but Swedish exit polls have been known to be a bit off in the past. It’s worth waiting until we get some actual results to confirm the findings from the two exit polls. Sweden’s public broadcaster SVT hopes to publish its superprojection shortly after 9pm (8pm UK), taking into account some early actual results. By the way, you can tell that Swedes love their Eurovision and TV shows: their exit polls don’t give you the projected results for all parties at once, but give them one by one, which means you don’t know what it means for the full picture until all of them come in. (wipes sweat from his forehead) There is certain irony in the fact that the Social Democrats could lead the opposition to power despite actually losing support compared to 2022 (28.4% in both exit polls, compared to 30.3% at the last election) and dipping below 30%. While the Liberals had reason to worry about whether they would make the new parliament, both exit polls show them firmly above the 4% threshold. It’s not entirely clear to what extent that’s due to tactical voting from other “blue” parties, but they will be happy with the result anyway. According to the SVT/Valu exit poll, the opposition parties lead by more than five percentage points – that’s close to the best pre-election polls in the final hours of the campaign – and should comfortably win the election. Surely the poll can’t be that wrong? Another immediate talking point is the result of the Sweden Democrats: in the SVT/Valu poll (but not the TV4 poll, mind), they only come third, falling behind the PM Kristersson’s Moderates. Quite a counter to the narrative about the far-right being on march across Europe. The SVT/Valu exit poll gives the opposition 183 seats in the new parliament to 166 for the current government and the Sweden Democrats. TV4 poll: Social Democratic Party (S) 28.4% Sweden Democrats (SD) 18.5% Moderates (M) 17.5% Centre Party (C) 9.0% Green Party (MP) 7.0% Left Party (V) 6.9% Christian Democrats (KD) 6.0% Liberals (L) 5.0% When you quickly add it up, it puts the centre-left opposition bloc at 51.3%, well ahead of the centre-right government bloc at 47.0%. SVT/Valu poll: Social Democratic party (S) 28.4% (-1.9%) Moderates (M) 18.1% (-1%) Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.2% (-3.3%) Left Party (V) 8.0% (-1.3%) Centre Party (C) 7.5% (+0.8%) Green Party (MP) 7.4% (+2.3%) Christian Democrats (KD) 6.1% (+0.8%) Liberals (L) 5.4% (+0.8) That puts the centre-left opposition bloc at 51.3% with 46.8% for the centre-right and far-right government parties. A change of government is on the cards. STV/Valu poll says opposition Social Democratic party is projected to win with 28.4% of the vote. But we sort of knew that. Let’s wait for the full numbers for all parties. The two exit polls – for Swedish public broadcaster SVT and private broadcaster TV4 – are expected imminently. The SVT’s poll in particular is a bit of an institution in Sweden. You can see the form that voters are asked to complete here. But, as usual, a quick health warning that usually comes with any exit poll: given just how tight the margins are expected to be, we should take these numbers with a pinch of salt. After all, in 2022 the exit polls showed the left-wing bloc narrowly ahead, only for the actual results to eventually show the opposite outcome. “These polling organisations are constantly tweaking their sampling to try to get it right. Everything’s changing all the time. The way we consume news, the way we communicate about politics with each other. So these pollsters are trying to hit a moving target the whole time,” Nicholas Aylott of Södertörn University in Stockholm tells me. So keeping in mind all of that, let’s see what they show. Ready? Arriving at her election night, Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson says it has been an “intense” campaign, and adds “there are still a few minutes left to choose a new direction.” “Change is within reach,” she says. Arriving at his Moderate party’s election night, prime minister Ulf Kristersson said it has been “a fantastically enjoyable campaign” of “hard work … and great enthusiasm.” He would say that, right? But he also says he is “confident” as the party has had “the wind in our sails for several weeks now.” “Now it’s up to the Swedish people to decide,” he says. European community affairs correspondent The Swedish polls have narrowed in recent weeks making many nervous, particularly as the right-leaning ruling coalition has for the first time said it would offer ministerial posts to the far right if it wins. Those who have borne the brunt of the far right’s time propping up the government worry that Sweden, long held up as a leading light when it comes to equality and freedom, may have been irrevocably changed, regardless of what happens on Sunday. “It’s a kind of Pandora’s box that has been opened,” said Munir Niazi. During the government of the centre-right prime minister Ulf Kristersson, the far-right Sweden Democrats have used their leverage to steer policies on migration and crime, seizing on the spotlight to spread rhetoric linking the two and scapegoating migrants, Muslims and other minorities for all that ails the country. The result had shifted Sweden’s national conversation to the right, said Niazi. “In the past four years, the biggest opposition party, the Social Democrats, have slowly adopted and even voted with the right wing on migration, on crime. In the near future, at least, we don’t see the country going back to the policies of the 80s and 90s.” The changes to immigration policy, including recently introduced rules barring most asylum seekers from accessing permanent residency, were an example of how the political conversation in Sweden had been transformed by the far right’s time as power-brokers, said journalist Bilan Osman. Among those caught up in the crackdown on asylum seekers was an undocumented 14-year-old who, despite being born in Sweden, was facing deportation to Armenia, along with his single-parent mother and his younger brother. “It’s like hell. I’ve been here my whole life,” he told the Guardian. “I feel Swedish.” Opposition leader Magdalena Andersson, voted on Sunday morning in the Stockholm suburb of Nacka, and said the campaign had been “a tale of two sides”. “There have been a lot of lies and bickering, but at the same time there are so many sensible people out there across the country,” she told SVT. “The focus is on winning and setting a new direction for Sweden.” “We’ve become a harder society, a quieter society, but also a poorer society as we’ve had growth far below our potential and where households see their paychecks buy less and less,” she told Reuters. Separately, Abba’s Benny Andersson showed his support for the Social Democrats’ leader by performing a reworked version of Mamma Mia to supporters at the party’s headquarters, replacing the words “Mamma Mia” with “Magdalena”. Prime minister Ulf Kristersson cast his ballot today, rocking up to vote with his family members and welsh springer, Winston. He told journalists he expected “a very, very exciting” evening, and insisted “the momentum” was on his side – even as his party appeared to be losing support in recent polls. But Kristersson’s focus appeared to be on winning as a bloc to continue the work of his government. “We are team leaders, that is our role in Swedish politics,” he said. “The precondition for getting things done is actually the ability to compromise, to have a clear vision but be pragmatic,” he said. “If we get people’s votes we will continue to do that for the coming four years.” As mentioned earlier, polls have long pointed to an opposition victory tonight – but the gap has narrowed significantly in recent weeks and leaving the question of the result tonight quite open. Over the last few weeks, Andersson’s Social Democrats fell below 30%, from near 35% at the beginning of the year, and were expected to secure around 28% of the vote. The far-right Sweden Democrats are expected to come second at 19%, narrowly ahead of Kristersson’s Moderates at 17%. The remaining parties are all around 7-8%, with the Liberals noting a surprising surge in recent weeks amid concerns if they would make it above the 4% threshold. After polling at just 2% in August, they were at 6-7% in the latest round of polls. The latest round of polls showed the opposition bloc lead by between 5.6% and 0.3%, giving it a slight edge in today’s race. While the two main contenders were busy debating on TV, deputy prime minister and Christian Democrat leader Ebba Busch and Liberal leader Simona Mohamsson went behind the bar in central Stockholm to serve some drinks and so mark the end of the campaign. There are some great pictures from their big pre-election night out in the Swedish press. “On a Saturday night you want to be where Sweden is, and many people are at the bar,” Busch told reporters. Other ministers also joined the party leaders, including Sweden’s top diplomat Maria Malmer Stenergard. But as the polls narrowed in recent days, the unusually polarised and tense campaign took a further nasty turn this week as a canvasser for the Social Demorats was physically assaulted on Thursday evening when knocking on doors in Bromölla. An 18-year old man was later arrested in connection with the incident. And during last night’s TV debate Andersson also disclosed that Social Democratic Gothenburg mayor Jonas Attenius was aggressively confronted when out campaigning on Saturday afternoon. Opening last night’s TV debate, she insisted that “words matter” as she urged politicians to be more considerate of the language they use when describing their rivals in an apparent swipe at the far-right Sweden Democrats party. PM Kristersson said he had no knowledge of the incident, and condemned it as “appalling.” A Sweden Democrats spokesperson rejected any implied link with their party, while also saying “no one should ever be threatened.” The two leading candidates for the post of Sweden’s next prime minister – the incumbent Ulf Kristersson and the challenger Magdalena Anderssen – faced each other on live TV last night in the last debate of the campaign. During the 90 minute duel, they set out their competing visions for the economy, crime, education, and other long-term challenges. A separate bloc of questions also looked ahead to Sweden in 2040, tackling an ageing population, low birth rates, climate ambitions, and energy policy. Ultimately, though, this was the final chance for both Andersson and Kristersson to pitch their vision of government directly to voters. Andersson repeatedly called for a different style of politics – one that would never be “governed by extreme forces” in the far-right Sweden Democrats. Yet she repeatedly evaded questions on the exact composition of a future administration. While criticising the growing polarisation in Swedish politics, she maintained she would be open to cooperating with every party except the SD. Her diplomatically vague stance reflects the complex internal dynamics of the centre-left bloc, where policy disputes and party rivalries make the shape of a potential coalition hard to pin down. In sharp contrast, Kristersson presented his bloc – the three coalition parties plus the Sweden Democrats – as ready to step straight back into office. He argued they “have proven that we are up to the task,” and insisted they would be prepared to start coalition talks the day after the vote. Pressed by Andersson, he refused to speculate on which ministries the SD might get in the next government, but claimed he offered a “stable, safe alternative” to Andersson’s “left-wing experiment.” Despite record-high number of people casting their votes early, long queues were reported in parts of Sweden on Sunday, with voters waiting up to three hours to vote. Swedish public broadcaster SVT spoke to voters in Umeå, who complained about the queues and waiting times at the polling station, while Expressen reached out to two elderly voters who go home because the queueing was too exhausting (but were planning to come back later). Lots of people also take to social media to express their frustration with the wait. The Swedish Election Authority said it was “unusual” for voters to have to wait for so long, and – perhaps not surprisingly (18:03) – suggested simplifying the voting system a bit. Over 3.5 million voters are believed to have cast their votes early to avoid the election day rush. It’s a somewhat unusual system, with voters given an extended window - which started on 26 August – to take part in the election. Among them, the Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson who chose to cast his ballot in Rinkeby, a heavily immigrant-populated area of Stockholm, which critics said was another polarising PR stunt before the polling day. Using it to hammer home his central anti-immigration message of the campaign, he said the area “did not look like Sweden” and “Sweden should not look like this,” in what Swedish media said was a reference to Muslim head coverings worn by some women in the area. The Sweden Democrats have pledged to ban both the niqab and the burqa if they get into government. in Stockholm Outside a polling station at Adolf Fredriks Musikklasser in central Stockholm, as many as three competing groups of pupils and students set up stalls offering coffee and pastries, hoping to raise funds on the back of election day. A mid-morning rush saw some voters pause for a kanelbulle and a chat, while others hurried straight inside to cast their ballots. Mikael, 51, felt voters in the middle were particularly squeezed by a polarised campaign. “I’m slightly nervous as someone who is in the middle. We are either going to have a centre-right government, dependent or with a far-right party in the government, or a centre-left government, dependent on a leftist party that I see as problematic. There is no perfect ending for me,” he said. “I would like the parties to focus on policy more – on your own policy, and not on what is bad with the others’ [proposals],” he said. A man in his thirties agreed it had been “a very intense” election campaign as he declared his support for the right-wing governing coalition. “I feel that in the past four years they have been [growing] the Swedish economy, and making Sweden a better place again, much safer than it used to be,” he said. Rebecca, 46, said she was holding “mixed feelings” about the vote and admitted she could not decide who to support until the very last minute. “I am hoping for the red side to win,” she eventually declared. “I think it’s important for everyone to be valued equally. I do not think we are going in the right direction now. Sweden was a lot better and more open minded before,” she said. Nordic correspondent Voting is under way in Sweden in a high-stakes election that could lead to the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) entering government for the first time. It comes after an unusually heated and polarised campaign punctuated by personal attacks between leaders, accusations of misinformation and Maga-inspired ads. Polls suggest an extremely tight race, with one showing just 0.3 percentage points between the left and right blocs. The right-leaning bloc, made up of what are known as the Tidö parties, has been in power for four years. It is formed of the Moderates, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals with a supporting role for SD, Sweden’s second biggest party. The opposition left-leaning bloc is formed of Sweden’s biggest party, the Social Democrats, the Centre party, the Green party and the Left party. The rightwing coalition broke a longstanding taboo in 2022 by going into partnership with SD, which has neo-Nazi roots. SD has attempted to make itself more palatable to the mainstream by toning down its overtly racist rhetoric, while arguing that immigration is responsible for Sweden’s crime problems. After four years in a supporting role for the Moderates-run coalition government, however, during which it has shifted much of the Swedish establishment to the right, SD’s approach to the election has been more brazen. If the right-leaning coalition wins, the party has been promised a prominent role in the government, including key ministerial positions. The prime minister and leader of the Moderates, Ulf Kristersson, has put considerable focus in the final days of campaigning on the penalty discount applied to criminals convicted of various offences. He accused opposition leader Magdalena Andersson of not standing up for female rape victims. In response, she accused him of weaponising men’s violence against women. Voters say the most important election issues are healthcare, law and order, immigration and the economy. But much of the election debate has been focused on personal finance, said Radio Sweden’s senior political correspondent, Fredrik Furtenbach. “The parties have tried to outdo each other with promises of more money. It has been a sort of auction.” If you’re looking just for a single story to quickly catch up on the story of tonight, let’s cross to our Nordic correspondent, Miranda Bryant, for her preview. The prospect of far-right anti-immigration Sweden Democrats entering the government has understandably attracted a lot of international attention, particularly coming just days after the Alternative für Deutschland won the regional elections in Saxony Anhalt in Germany. As our Nordic correspondent Miranda Bryant notes in her preview, “SD has attempted to make itself more palatable to the mainstream by toning down its overtly racist rhetoric, while arguing that immigration is responsible for Sweden’s crime problems. SD’s campaign slogan of “make Sweden Sweden again” was reminiscent of Donald Trump’s “make America great again”. Its controversial ads on buses – with messages including: “Do you miss Mogadishu? The repatriation grant will help you get home” – were taken down after drivers refused to work in vehicles displaying them.” It is yet another example of far-right parties gaining ground across Europe. But, Aylott says, “it would be misleading to describe the election as a referendum on the far-right” as the party’s creeping normalisation progressed over several years. He says, however, that “the issue of the normalisation of the Sweden Democrats is a very big deal to a small subset of the electorate, and this subset may be very important in determining the outcome of the election.” “As has been the case for a long time now, maybe 15-20, years, the two sides of Swedish politics are very evenly matched and if the prospect of Sweden Democrat ministers is so distasteful to some voters … that they would be prepared to vote for a party of the left bloc, that could tip the balance.” Aylott says the party’s growing role in Swedish politics is already remarkable, as it has heavily shaped the country’s approach to migration and law and order issues in the last decade. “The debate about certain topics these days is totally different to what it was here 10 years ago, 15 years ago. This is an absolutely enormous change, and of course the rise of the Sweden Democrats is a big part of that.” He adds that its position going into this election is in stark contrast with “the sense of shock” among political elites when the party first entered into parliament in 2010, with parties “sort of having a competition … who could most aggressively ostracise” it. If the party – which has neo-Nazi roots, for which it apologised last year – gets into government at this election, “it would be another step and would add to this broader trend in Europe of radical conservative populists forces becoming key players in national politics,” a trend already seen in France, Germany, the Netherlands, and elsewhere. Aylott says the party could be best compared to Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy or Le Pen’s National Rally rather than Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland. The party, led by Jimmie Åkesson, has “toned down” its euroscepticism dropping the call for “Swexit” – although remains critical of the EU’s migration and climate policies – and focuses heavily on domestic issues, particularly migration and law and order. Despite historical scepticism, it also eventually supported Sweden’s bid to join Nato, and is unlikely to seek to challenge Sweden’s support for Ukraine. However, as Miranda notes in her preview, a leading SD figure, Gustav Gellerbrant, came under national scrutiny recently after an investigation by the publication Expo connected his partner to Russian state actors and the spread of Russian propaganda. His partner, who is Russian, works as a civil servant for SD in parliament. Gellerbrant said in response that it was “isolated information” intended to raise suspicion about her Russian origins and has since gone on leave. Since 2022, Sweden has been governed by a three-party minority government led by the Moderates party (often referred to simply as M) leader Ulf Kristersson, with Ebba Busch’s Christian Democrats (KD) and Simona Mohamsson’s the Liberals (L). They are currently supported by – but not formally joined in the government – by the far-right populist and anti-immigration Sweden Democrats (SD) party, led by Jimmie Åkesson. They are one of, if not the, key talking points of the night. A win for the centre-right bloc of parties would most likely see them formally join the government, breaking another taboo in Swedish politics. The opposition is led by former prime minister Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats (S – not SD), which is the largest party in the parliament. Other parties of the opposition bloc are: the Centre party (C) of Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist, the Left party (V) of Nooshi Dadgostar, and the Green Party (MP) of Daniel Helldén and Amanda Lind. The left-wing bloc has been leading in the polls for the majority of the current parliamentary term, with Andersson’s party alone polling at times in mid 30s, leaving many experts thinking that a change of government was all but certain. But in recent months the polls have substantially narrowed, giving the combined opposition only a very slim lead going into the election day. They are the favourites to win, but it’s still all to play for. “The opposition parties have had a lead in the polls, often a very comfortable lead … so if there were to be any other outcome than an opposition victory, it would be sort of sensational because the lead has been so consistent and so long established – but it’s not impossible,” Aylott tells me. “The big challenge the Social Democrats would face in the quite likely event that they will be forming a government is that their constellation of allied parties, which would comprise the majority, is very diverse,” he adds. “One of the aspects of this diversity is that some of them take a much more permissive view on things like law and order and migration, so keeping this diverse constellation of currently opposition parties could be difficult.” You would think it’s a sort of self-explanatory thing, right? Well, you would be wrong, as Sweden has a fairly complex seven-step process for casting your votes. Voters take pick ballots from a station with many available options. Yellow ballots are for the national parliament, Riksdag, white for the municipal assembly, and blue for the region assembly. It’s complicated, so let me just point you towards the official guidance on how it’s meant to work: Voters then take three ballot envelopes, stick their ballot inside, close them, and take it to a polling staff member who checks your name on the voters’ register, crosses you out, and then drops them into the ballot box. Easy, right? There are 349 seats in the parliament, so theoretically it’s a race to 175 when it comes to securing a majority in the Riksdag. But it’s a bit more complicated than that. It’s a proportional representation system, but to get in, you need to clear a 4% threshold – and that is particularly relevant for the Liberal party, which the current PM is likely to need to stay in power. The party long polled well before the threshold, but surged in recent days, helped by their leader’s strong performances in TV debates and what is believed to be some tactical voting among the supporters of the “blue” bloc as they want to make sure they make it into the parliament. We are expecting eight parties to be in the next parliament and this level of fragmentation can make government formation a bit tricky at times. But in theory they are divided in two blocks – blue and red – which are expected to come to some sort of agreement, if needed. It’s also worth remembering that Sweden has a long history of minority governments. “Sweden has a tradition of minority governments,” Aylott explains, with the concept of “negative parliamentarism.” “If there’s a prime minister proposed, then if there is the absence of an absolute majority in parliament against the proposal, it’s interpreted as support. So a party that doesn’t really want to give full support to this proposed candidate - maybe because it’s not going to be part of the coalition, but which can just about live with it, and doesn’t have a better alternative – it can abstain from the vote, and that’s counted as passive support. This makes it much easier to form minority governments.” Aylott continues: “But it’s it’s worth remembering that nearly every, almost by definition, minority government eventually rests on a parliamentary majority, and these parliamentary majorities are usually not always, but usually fairly stable. This was the story of the last four years, with a minority government, but they had a very elaborate Tidö deal with the Sweden Democrats, which meant that there was a de facto majority in parliament. So, minority governments aren’t as fragile, usually at least, as they look.” Since you may not be ordinarily following the Swedish politics very closely, let me bring you up to speed on some of the key aspect of this year’s election. Nicholas Aylott, senior lecturer at Södertörn University in Stockholm, joined me over coffee earlier to offer some commentary to help us make sense of it. The polls opened at 8am local time (7am UK) and will close 12 hours later, at 8pm local time (7pm UK). And it is at 8pm local time when we should get the results of the Swedish public broadcaster SVT’s polling station survey, and a separate poll commissioned by private broadcaster TV4. We should start getting first actual results not long after that and as the night goes on, we should be moving to on a firmer ground (he says hopefully). For what it’s worth, SVT is hoping to release its “super forecast” with expected election result at some point after 9pm local time (8pm UK). Don’t expect the party leaders to rush to stage for their victory speeches before we get a clear(er) sense of what is going on. Understandably, we focus on the general election, but it’s worth noting that the local elections to regional and municipal councils are also held on the same day, and so voters get as many as three ballots in total. in Stockholm Hej, that’s hello in Swedish, from Stockholm, where I spent this morning eating Swedish pastry and meatballs talking to voters about the country’s prospects as they cast their votes in today’s parliamentary elections. Here is what they told me, straight from Stockholm: in Stockholm We kick off our coverage of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election which could see the far right enter government for the first time if the country’s rightwing parties can form a majority – or a new centre-left government take control instead. As our Nordic correspondent Miranda Bryant noted in her preview, “In 2022, the current prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, the leader of the centre-right Moderates, broke a longstanding taboo to make a deal with the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD), so that his minority coalition could form a government. That agreement gave the SD outsized influence over government policy, especially on crime and immigration, and Kristersson has now gone further, promising ministerial posts for the SD if he is returned to power.” The opposition “red” bloc is led by former prime minister Magdalena ⁠Andersson of the Social Democrats, but their lead has narrowed considerably in the final days of the campaign to less than one percentage point. It could be a very, very close race. The polls opened 8am local time and will close 8pm local time (7pm UK), when we should have two exit polls – conducted by Swedish broadcaster SVT and TV4 – for you. A further projection will be published by public broadcaster SVT about an hour later, as we start getting actual results. We could be in for a long night, but hope you will join us for lots of colour from Stockholm, the last hours of the campaign trail, and obviously the results. Good evening.